Trend Analysis

www.ZeroAttempts.org

Methodology
Exhibit I:
Pride Survey Composite - 2009-2018 - Direct previous year comparison. Even year high, Odd year low
Exhibit II:
Pride Survey - Odd Years - 2009-2017 - 2009 base year - percentage change versus previous odd year
Exhibit III:
Pride Survey - Even Years - 2010-2018 - 2010 base year - percentage change versus previous even year
Exhibit IV:
Pride Survey Composite - 2009-2018 - Percent change compilation of Exhibit II and III

Methodology


While it is clear that the difference in methodologies of the Health Teen Survey and the Student Wellness Survey are such that they cannot be directly used for combined trend data.

The odd years have a statewide inclusion of more schools and the Even years has a smaller,select group of school districts producing dramatic but consistent fluctuations in the year to year data. Even years produce higher numbers, sometimes 100% higher than Odd years on identical questions. (See Exhibit I) http://www.ZeroAttempts.org/charts/healthyteen-wellness-or-composite-2009-2018.html or https://bit.ly/2Jj3XMA

While not perfect, I believe that there is a way to show a year-to-year trend. The specific questions I use in five categories don't change year-to-year,

1. Create an odd year chart (Exhibit II) http://www.ZeroAttempts.org/charts/healthyteen-or-composite-2009-2017-odd-year.html or https://bit.ly/2z673Pn showing the percent change from the previous odd year (two years prior). The red shows when the number is greater that the previous two-year survey period.

2. Create an even year chart (Exhibit III) http://www.ZeroAttempts.org/charts/wellness-or-composite-2010-2018-even-year.html or https://bit.ly/2OQwzTb showing the percent change from the previous even year (two years prior). The red indicates when the number is greater that the previous two-year survey.

3. Combine the percentage changes into one chart (Exhibit IV) http://www.ZeroAttempts.org//charts/Oregon-Pride-Surveys-or-composite-2009-2018.html or https://bit.ly/2P2GAMF to find the trend. This is particularly evident in Suicidally. Regardless of the year and the methodology, the red shows a continuing increase in suicidality for Oregon's 6th, 8th and 11th graders, a disturbing trend.

I hope you find this useful. If you're interested in keeping up on the information, abstracts, reports, stories and trainings on the issue of suicide prevention, check out Suicide-Watch, a free monthly email developed by the folks at ZeroAttempts.org. The email goes out on the first of every month. Click on http://bit.ly/2FqdEt0 any time from the current, updated report

©2009-2018, www.ZeroAttempts.org/charts/composite-trend-analysis.html or https://bit.ly/2JRjt19
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